China News by Thebittimes.Com

There’s an outlandish Polymarket bet that asks, “Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?” It seems like an easy win — after all, the odds are surely stacked against another resurrection. However, there are some who think it might actually be more profitable to bet on the prophet making a comeback. AI alignment researcher Eric Neyman wanted to know why someone would bet on Jesus Christ’s return via Polymarket. In a blog published last March, he ruled out Christian zealots, buying it for the memes, and betting on a resolution mistake on Polymarket’s end.   Neyman’s friend Jesse Richardson, a Polymarket trader, put forward a “Time Value of Money” theory instead. This hypothesised that “Yes” betters are possibly holding out for the “No” betters to get bored of waiting for their measly end-of-year returns, currently at 2.9%, or 97.1% odds.  In order to make $29,000 in profit, you’d have to bet $971,000 on “No” and wait till the end of the year . The...

The prediction market Polymarket has gained popularity amid developments and speculations related to the United States presidential election. However, recent research suggests there could have been an attempt to manipulate the outcome of a derivative bet. On Friday, September 6, Dumpster DAO posted a thread on X looking into what the account called a manipulation attempt. The activity involved the dispute between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris a few days after Trump regained popularity, as Finbold reported. In summary, the investigator believes a group – or a single individual – tried to briefly manipulate the “Presidential Election Winner” bet to win the derivative market, speculating which candidate would be leading it on Friday’s closing. Picks for you Bitcoin reaches ‘downside target’ and BTC ‘full bull gear’ can sta...