Why Polymarket users are betting that Jesus Christ will return
There’s an outlandish Polymarket bet that asks, “Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?” It seems like an easy win — after all, the odds are surely stacked against another resurrection. However, there are some who think it might actually be more profitable to bet on the prophet making a comeback. AI alignment researcher Eric Neyman wanted to know why someone would bet on Jesus Christ’s return via Polymarket. In a blog published last March, he ruled out Christian zealots, buying it for the memes, and betting on a resolution mistake on Polymarket’s end. Neyman’s friend Jesse Richardson, a Polymarket trader, put forward a “Time Value of Money” theory instead. This hypothesised that “Yes” betters are possibly holding out for the “No” betters to get bored of waiting for their measly end-of-year returns, currently at 2.9%, or 97.1% odds. In order to make $29,000 in profit, you’d have to bet $971,000 on “No” and wait till the end of the year . The...