Quant Analyst PlanB Predicts BTC Exponential Growth
PlanB, a well-known quantitative researcher, says that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to grow very quickly before the halving event next year.
The pseudonymous quant expert predicts that Bitcoin will follow the stock-to-flow (S2F) model and rise more than 588% from its present value of $29,069 to $200,000.
PlanB says that the halving of Bitcoin in April 2024, which will cut the prize for BTC miners in half, will be the spark that sends the king cryptocurrency to new all-time highs.
“2024 halving cycle is going to be very interesting. Or 2022 was an outlier and 2023+ will revert to S2F model line. Or there is a non-linear relationship between S2F/halving and price, diminishing return. IMO (in my opinion) 2022 was an outlier and exponential growth will continue until ~50% adoption. Time will tell.”
Traders have used the S2F model for a long time to predict how the prices of things like gold and silver will move. The model predicts how an asset will do based on the idea that the price goes up as the number of that asset goes down.
PlanB also thinks that as more people use Bitcoin, its value will go up. He says there are one million Bitcoin holders and 56 million fiat millionaires.
“I do not count people who hold paper bitcoin on exchanges as hodlers (they are more traders). So if we look at people that hold real on-chain bitcoin, there are only 3.5 million BTC addresses with more than 0.1 BTC on it… and many hodlers have multiple addresses so that number probably converts to say ~1 million hodlers.
56 million fiat millionaires in the world, 1 million Bitcoin addresses with more than 1 BTC. We are early.”
In his argument for Bitcoin’s growth, the quantitative expert also points out that when liquidity is added to the markets, Bitcoin does better than gold and stocks.
“Global liquidity (especially central bank money printing after [Global Financial Crisis of 2008] and [Covid 19 stimulus checks]) is the tide that lifts all boats. But some boats got lifted much higher!
Last 10 years:
– Gold (yellow line): flat
– Stocks (blue): 3X
– Bitcoin (candles): 10,000X”
PlanB has said before that Bitcoin will go up to $532,000 after its split in 2024.
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